INDIA COVID risk forecast

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INDIA 30-day Death Projection

Sep 16 -Oct 15, 2021 Outlook : The dominant COVID story in India has been the ongoing surge in the state of Kerala. This seems to be diminishing and the updated for Sep 16 and shows yields a 30-day death total estimate of a  around 4400, down from 5700 from the Sep 7 prediction. The vast majority of India shows a continued low or reduced case and death count. 

Your key to stopping the third wave!

A Bit of Background

The second wave of COVID-19 has run a ruthless and unforgiving rampage through every facet of life in India. A recovering nation is left in tatters, searching for answers as to how such a calamity could take place and if and when a similar scenario could unfold in the near future.

Instead of accepting the inevitable, what if you were empowered with a view of the immediate future of COVID in India? What if you had at your fingertips the answer to how things are going to change in the weeks ahead? What if you could picture the next surge and take the right steps to protect you and your loved ones and by flattening the COVID curve?

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How COVINDIA works

The idea of COVINDIA is simple : help people in India and relatives abroad understand and subsequently control the COVID trends through simple visualization. This is done through a 30-day COVID risk forecast map for each state in India, generated using current COVID data coupled with unique mathematical modeling and software. The result of the model is a 30-day prediction of daily deaths and case rates for the nation, information that is used to produce the forecast. 

The modeled risk is captured in a color map in which each state in the country is assigned a color from white (lowest risk) to red (highest risk). The forecast summary is in the form of a short video showing this composite map of all states in India changing color over time. 

As the COVID conditions are dynamic, the map requires recalculation and refinement. It is updated every 2 weeks and will be posted to this site. You can view the time-lapse video to understand how the risk is changing over time. A progressive increase in red in any state suggests that a surge is imminent.

On the flip side, if your state shows a lightening in color towards pink and perhaps white, then the conditions are forecast to improve. This trend would suggest that the imminent risk level is expected to reduce and that some relaxation of existing restrictions may be warranted.

In addition to the map, the death projections for each state in India are displayed along with an outlook for the forecast period. 

Think of COVINDIA as a COVID equivalent of a weather forecast. Similar to how you would prepare for a predicted adverse weather event like a severe storm, the COVID forecast map is designed to give you a month long prediction on how COVID will affect your state. You and your family can take action as required.


Why COVINDIA?

Until the majority of the population is vaccinated, India's most effective tool to stop COVID spread is the adherence to widely known public health measures like masking and social distancing. This involves tough decision-making - it is hard to know what to do at a given time as the COVID conditions are so dynamic.


With this in mind, COVINDIA is designed with one goal : to empower you with COVID information you need to make decisions that will save lives. The forecast will help you understand how COVID is spreading and how it is predicted to change over time. If the latest map shows a reddening of your state, extra caution is warranted with masking and social distancing as well as postponement or cancellation any large gatherings or planned trips. In isolation, this may not appear significant but if these actions are replicated by as many people as possible, a wall is built through social patterns that will slow down the spread. There will be no third COVID wave!

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How you can help

Right now, you are the biggest weapon in controlling the COVID spread. First and foremost, just by spreading the COVINDIA word to all your contacts, you are playing an important role in sharing this resource. You will also help by checking this site a few times every month and by observing the forecast for your state. If the conditions are worsening, you will help by exercising extra caution before it is too late. All it takes is a few seconds of your time every few days and some common sense. You can protect yourself, your family and serve your country.

Like any complex system like weather, the COVINDIA forecast will not be 100% correct all of the time. But it will certainly display trends and changing patterns that you can pick up on and use to your benefit. Instead of chasing the virus as it wreaks havoc, this information should keep you one step ahead. You have virtually nothing to lose and everything to gain. 

About

I am a PhD physicist, born in Kerala, India and raised in Wales, UK. I graduated from the University of Cambridge and now work and live with my family in San Diego, USA. I am as passionate about science as I am in making some type of contribution to any effort to rid ourselves from this disastrous episode in world history.


COVINDIA is a personal mission spawned from the tragic loss of a dear relative in India. It is the result of attempting to absorb the relentless worldwide suffering while at the same time understanding that simple steps towards giving people the information they need in a palatable way can help profoundly in the global fight against this hidden adversary.

There is no bottom line for COVINDIA - the service is free. I work on this entirely in my spare time with the expectation that the information will provide a guide to anyone and everyone who has a concern about COVID in India. I will continue to update the maps for as long as COVID remains a threat. The hope is that the learning contained in the models generates enough interest to make a difference. Time will tell.

Acknowledgements

The following web sources were used for gathering the national and state test positivity/death data. This is utilized as input for the modeling software.

1. https://www.covid19india.org/

2. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india